A Shift Is Happening (and Most People Won’t Notice Yet)

Last week Video Market Update 

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I wanted to share a reality check you are not going to get from the headlines.

Right now, the three big pieces of the puzzle are finally lining up in a good way:

• Inflation has cooled back down into the low-2% range year-over-year, instead of the 4–5% we were fighting not that long ago (historical average is 2.8%).
• The average 30-year mortgage rate is sitting right around 6.0%–6.1% instead of the 7-plus percent we saw at the peak.
  
• And the income needed to afford the typical U.S. home has actually dropped about 4% from last year, which means the gap between renting and owning is finally starting to shrink.

That’s the national picture.

Locally ~

Here’s what I’m actually seeing on the ground in Santa Cruz:

We had over 40 people through our open house in one day and over 60 through the  weekend. Buyers are back out, they’re pre-approved, and they’re writing offers. At a 6.04% rate, a lot of people have run the numbers and decided, ‘Okay, this is workable. Let’s go.

So while the news is still talking about uncertainty and fear, the reality is that confidence is quietly coming back. Jobs are holding up, inflation is calmer, rates are lower than they were, and serious buyers are making moves again. Those are all critical pieces of the puzzle for a healthier real estate market in 2026.

I’m sharing this with you now because this is the part most people don’t hear until after the wave has already passed. By the time the big media outlets start saying, ‘The market is back,’ the sharpest opportunities will already be gone.

If you’ve been sitting on the fence—whether you’re renting and thinking about buying, or you own and are considering a move—this is your heads-up from someone who’s in the homes, talking to the buyers, and watching the numbers every day.

If you want to know what this shift looks like with your budget, your timing, and your goals, reach out. I’m here to guide you home with aloha, and to make sure you’re informed before everyone else catches on.

Guiding you home with Aloha

Touring this weekend? Here’s the one link you need: https://kalanistone.com/open-house

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