Valentine’s Week Market Update: The Numbers + The Why

by Kalani Stone

Last weeks Numbers

Aloha, and Happy Valentine’s Week to all you lovers 🌺

Ian and I would love to try a great new restaurant in town. If you have a recommendation, please call, text me, or respond to this email.

So what’s this week’s real estate story? Here’s the real story — and it’s not the headline. It’s the “why” behind what our people are feeling in Santa Cruz County.

National affordability is improving a bit, but our markets are still in a completely different affordability universe. What’s felt nationally can still feel tight here, because our price points create a very different monthly payment reality.

Now, here’s the stability piece I like to keep an eye on: mortgage stress in our broader region is low. This data is from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Mortgage Technology, and it tracks “non-current” mortgages (30+ days late, including foreclosure). San Jose and San Francisco are among the lowest in the country. Translation: the foundation here looks healthy.

So what does that mean locally, today?

It means the market is selective and payment-sensitive — and inventory is still low — so the homes that hit that sweet spot can move fast. The “right” properties still create urgency. The ones that miss the mark don’t necessarily need a haircut… they need a better strategy.

And this is where the solution lives. If affordability is the sticking point, there are ways to solve for payment. Sometimes that’s price, yes — but often it’s terms: seller credits, interest-rate buydowns, structuring the offer to reduce out-of-pocket costs, exploring different loan options, and in the right situations, being creative with how the deal is put together so the monthly feels doable.

For buyers: the opportunity right now is being strategic, not just shopping. When the payment math works, you’re in a strong position — especially on homes that aren’t perfectly positioned.

For sellers: the goal is to make your home feel like a “yes” in a payment-sensitive world. That’s pricing and prep, and it can also be the terms you’re willing to offer to make the buyer’s monthly work — without turning it into a race to the bottom.

If you want the micro version for your neighborhood, tell me your zip code and price range. I’ll share what’s moving, what’s not, and what strategies are working right now — so you can make decisions with clarity.