What's Changing Here at Home

by Kalani Stone

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Aloha Sand Club ~

There's a lot happening right now that could shape the real estate market over the next several months, and I wanted to share a few things I'm watching that I think every homeowner and buyer should know about.

Let's start close to home.

If you own property in the City of Santa Cruz, or you're thinking about selling, Measure C takes effect July 1. It adds a parcel tax for most property owners in city limits, and on what is today considered a traditional sale of a single family home in the city these days, a transfer tax that's worth planning for early, not discovering during escrow.

It's not retroactive. But if you've been thinking about timing a sale, this is exactly the kind of detail worth a conversation before you list, not after.

Now, the bigger picture.

Last week, more than 12,000 REALTORS® across California came together in just over 24 hours to oppose AB 736, a state proposal that would have made it easier for cities to raise real estate transfer taxes even further, just like Measure C did here at home. The response was overwhelming, and the bill was pulled.

That's a win for California homeowners.

It also opened the door to something else. As part of the deal that killed AB 736, a measure is now headed to the November ballot that would require a two-thirds vote before cities can raise certain local taxes in the future, and would cap transfer taxes statewide. If it passes, it makes moves like Measure C harder to repeat elsewhere without real voter buy-in.

There's also an affordable housing bond on November's ballot, along with a separate bond aimed at helping buyers at or below 200% of the area median income get into newly built homes with a smaller down payment. Details to come, but this most likely won't move the needle much here — most of what's actually getting built locally is apartments, not homes to purchase, and that income threshold isn't going to translate into real buying power in this market. I'll have more to say as we get closer to the vote.

Closer to home, something else is worth watching. San Francisco's market has come roaring back — single-family home prices are up over 22% from a year ago, with bidding wars and inventory at historic lows. Santa Clara County is holding near record-high prices too, even with sales picking up. Santa Cruz has always felt the ripple effect when the Bay Area heats up, and history tells us that money looking for more space and value doesn't stay contained for long. Will it happen overnight? Probably not. But it's exactly the kind of pressure I'll be watching as it relates to our local market in the months ahead.

None of this is decided yet, and ballot measures shift right up until November. But these are exactly the kinds of changes that affect what it costs to buy, what it costs to sell, and how much of your equity actually stays in your pocket.

As always, my job is to watch what's happening statewide and right here in Santa Cruz County, so you don't have to.

If you ever have questions about how any of this could affect your home, your plans, or your investment, I'm always happy to have a conversation.

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